Small business owners are heading into the second half of 2026 with the highest confidence on record. According to a new report from lender OnDeck and analytics firm Ocrolus, 93% of small business owners expect growth over the coming year, with nearly a third anticipating significant growth. That number is an all-time high in the survey’s history. The report is based on 651 small and mid-sized businesses with working capital loans and more than 3.69 million financing applications, giving it substantial ground-level credibility.
The catch: even as optimism hits record levels, cash flow concerns are hitting record levels right alongside it. For the first time, cash flow topped the list of owner worries, cited by 31% of respondents — edging out inflation, which fell to second at 29%. Confidence and concern are rising together. That’s the headline.
What This Actually Means
This isn’t some fluke survey of optimists. OnDeck is a major small business lender. Ocrolus processes loan application data at scale. These are business owners who have active working capital relationships — they are running real operations and feeling real pressure. When 93% of them say they expect to grow, that’s not cheerleading. That’s a bet they’re making with their own money.
The shift away from traditional banks is equally telling. More than 76% of respondents said they bypassed traditional banks for capital — another all-time survey record. Nearly half (46%) named access to credit as the top factor shaping their 2026 strategy, ahead of consumer spending (42%) and interest rates (35%). Trade policy and macro risks landed at just 14%. In other words: small business owners aren’t losing sleep over geopolitics. They’re focused on whether they can get money to grow.
That’s a fundamentally different risk profile than what most financial media tends to cover. While headlines obsess over macro uncertainty, the actual operators are asking a simpler question: can I get capital, and can I deploy it before my competitors do?
The Numbers Behind It
A few data points worth sitting with:
- 93% of small business owners in the OnDeck/Ocrolus report expect growth in the coming year — a survey all-time high.
- 76%+ bypassed traditional banks for their last round of capital, also a record. Alternative lending is no longer alternative — it’s the default.
- 58% of small business owners in the report now use AI tools. Among those using AI, 89% say it has had a positive impact on their business. Compare that to a McKinsey finding that only around 35% of small businesses had meaningfully adopted AI as of 2025 — the adoption curve is accelerating fast.
- The SBA counts 33.2 million small businesses in the United States. If even a fraction of that universe is feeling this level of energy heading into H2 2026, the aggregate economic effect is enormous.
Cash flow remains the friction point. It’s been the silent killer of otherwise-healthy small businesses for decades. The same energy that drove small business hiring to a 5-year high is now running headfirst into the reality that payroll has to clear every two weeks whether revenue comes in or not.
The Hustler’s Library Take
Record confidence with record cash flow anxiety is the most honest summary of entrepreneurship we’ve seen in years. These aren’t contradictory signals. They’re the same signal: owners are ambitious enough to bet on growth, and smart enough to know that the biggest threat to that growth is a 30-day gap in receivables.
The bank bypass trend matters enormously. If you’re still walking into a regional bank branch to ask for a business line of credit, you’re playing a 2015 game in a 2026 market. Alternative lenders, revenue-based financing, and fintech credit products have fundamentally changed what’s available to small businesses — but only if you know where to look and how to position your business to qualify. That’s not optional knowledge anymore. It’s table stakes.
The AI number is the sleeper stat: 58% adoption with an 89% satisfaction rate is a near-perfect product-market fit signal. If you’re in the 42% not using AI yet, you are not just behind on a trend — you are behind on a productivity advantage your competitors are already compounding. As we covered in 11 AI side hustles that are actually making money in 2026, the tools aren’t theoretical anymore. They’re operational.
What You Should Do
The report makes three things clear. Here’s how to act on each:
1. Treat cash flow like a product, not an afterthought. Cash flow topped the concern list for the first time — that’s a signal that growth-minded owners are running into timing gaps between revenue and expenses. Build a 13-week cash flow forecast if you don’t have one. Know your burn rate. Any growth strategy worth executing starts with knowing what cash you have to deploy and when.
2. Audit your capital stack now, not when you need it. 76% of small business owners are already outside traditional banking for capital. If you haven’t explored what’s available — OnDeck, Bluevine, Fundbox, revenue-based financing — you’re missing leverage. The best time to establish a credit relationship is when you don’t need it urgently. Apply for a line of credit while your books look strong.
3. Get AI into at least one workflow this month. With 89% of AI-using small business owners reporting positive impact, the risk is no longer “will it work.” The risk is waiting too long to start. Pick one repetitive task — customer email responses, social content, invoice drafting — and run it through an AI tool for 30 days. Track the time saved. You’ll be in the majority before the end of Q3.
The U.S. Small Business Administration offers free resources on financial planning and accessing capital for business owners at every stage.
The confidence is real. The cash flow pressure is real. The opportunity is right in the middle of both.
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Source: ASBN — Small businesses report record confidence heading into second half of 2026. Data from the OnDeck/Ocrolus Small Business Cash Flow Report, survey conducted March 4-10, 2026, based on 651 SMBs.
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